After more than a decade of underfunding, short-term policymaking, and crisis management, the UK justice system is on the brink. Rising prison numbers, chronic staffing shortages, and an exhausted probation service have pushed things to a tipping point. But is it too late to turn back?
Napo General Secretary Ian Lawrence doesn’t think so, but he’s sounding the alarm.
“My sincere hope is we are heading for structural, useful reform,” he says. “But my worry is that if this government repeats the mistakes of the last government — and to some extent, governments before that — then we are not on a very safe wicket.”
Punishment over prevention
Successive governments, he argues, have focused too heavily on prison expansion at the expense of rehabilitation and community-based solutions. “The idea that prisons are the priority within the justice system is a palpable mistake. We have to have a holistic look at every facet of the criminal justice system, of which probation is as important as any.”
Ian is clear about the failure of recent penal policy: “Build more prisons. Create more cells. Lock people up. Throw away the key.” But the results speak for themselves. Recalls to prison are increasing. Many inside the system, especially in the women’s estate, should not be there at all.
He shares the story of a young man in Manchester considering reoffending just to access food and shelter. “That’s not the mark of a civilised society.”
Probation is undervalued and overloaded
With prisons full, probation has become a “dumping ground.” Staff are overstretched, and the system is failing to keep people out of custody for good. “It’s in one door and out the other. That cannot be effective use of taxpayers’ money.”
The reluctance of politicians to engage honestly with justice policy is part of the problem. “There’s a fear of being seen as soft on crime,” Ian says. “But the prison population now includes many people who do not pose a serious threat to the public.”
A chance for change
While cautiously optimistic about the new Labour government, Ian is clear that action — not words — will be the measure of success. He highlights the upcoming sentencing review led by David Gauke, a former Justice Secretary who listened to union concerns during the campaign to reverse Transforming Rehabilitation.
“We’re waiting to see how many of the recommendations will be probation-specific.”
Cafcass is still in the shadows
Cafcass staff, too, are feeling the strain. Though Ian has engaged with Lord Ponsonby and other supportive voices in Parliament, real investment is still needed. “Staffing levels must be maintained. New talent needs to be brought in. And long-serving Family Court Advisers need to feel properly supported.”
Despite positive feedback from Ofsted and senior leaders, the service is being held back by underfunding and unclear government direction. “I think there is a need for Cafcass to be looked at with as much seriousness as probation.”
What needs to happen now
If Ian were setting the government’s agenda, the answer would be simple: invest. “Without that, attrition will continue. Standards will drop. Burnout will increase.”
The choice facing the government is stark: commit to real change, or watch the justice system drift further into dysfunction. “If we don’t act now, we’ll be having this discussion again in a few years’ time, and it will be worse.”








One Response
Yes, yes, yes.
I’m at Cafcass. So much good work and intention. But year on year pay is the reason people leave alongside what is expected for that pay. The pound of flesh required now outweighs the pay for many… dare I say most. The only thing saving Cafcass from mass exodus is that local authorities may be just as bad or worse!
Not fertile ground for all to do our best work. Give the money and ensure it directly reaches staff. 6% / £3500 would be transformative for me. Job satisfaction would certainly increase. I may even be able to afford some healthy food for my kids! I’m not optimistic though. Somehow this government seems worse than the last…