The justice system in England and Wales is at breaking point. Prisons are overcrowded, probation services are overwhelmed, and community sentencing is in sharp decline. Part one of the Independent Sentencing Review has been published and exposes how political choices, underfunding, and risk-averse policies have created a system that isn’t reducing crime—it’s making things worse.
Probation is under pressure
As of September 2024, over 240,000 people were under probation supervision—more than double the number in 1993. The report suggests that this rise in numbers isn’t because a strategic approach to reducing reoffending has been taken, rather this surge is the result of fragmented policies and chronic underinvestment.
Probation plays a crucial role in rehabilitation, but high caseloads and budget cuts mean staff struggle to provide the necessary support. Fewer resources and limited access to local services like housing and social care currently make it hard for the probation service to function as a real alternative to custody.
Why are prison numbers rising?
The review makes it clear: the growing prison population isn’t due to more crime. Instead, longer sentences and rising recall rates are the main culprits.
Successive laws have expanded recall powers, making it easier to send offenders back to prison for minor breaches of their licence conditions—such as missing an appointment. The introduction of mandatory community supervision for short sentences has worsened this trend. As a result, more people are being recalled to prison, often for non-criminal reasons.
The Ministry of Justice admits that risk-averse probation policies, driven by fear of high-profile serious offences, are also playing a role in the rising recall rates. Overworked staff are making increasingly cautious decisions, which in turn fuels prison overcrowding.
The Decline of Community Sentences
One of the most concerning findings in the review is the sharp decline in community sentencing. In 2012, courts imposed 150,000 community orders. By 2023, that number had plummeted to just 71,000.
This drop is linked to several key factors:
- Damaged relationships between courts and probation following failed reforms.
- Chronic underfunding of community-based alternatives, leading to doubts about their effectiveness.
- Political reluctance to champion non-custodial sentences, with some noting that community sentencing is absent from Labour’s manifesto.
It is claimed that judges and magistrates have lost confidence in probation’s ability to enforce community orders. Phil Bowen, Director of the Centre for Justice Innovation, argues that restoring trust requires giving probation professionals the freedom to use their expertise in decision-making.
The impact of policy choices
Years of deliberate underfunding and policy missteps have had devastating consequences—not only for those in the justice system but also for the professionals managing it.
Probation staff are quitting at an alarming rate, with an annual turnover of 10.3% as of September 2024. Many have raised concerns that recruitment fails to assess candidates’ suitability, leading to high stress, low morale, and further staff shortages.
What needs to change?
The review highlights that funding has been disproportionately directed towards prisons at the expense of probation and community alternatives. To create a fairer, more effective justice system, urgent reforms are needed:
- Restoring confidence in community sentences: Courts need reassurance that probation can deliver effective community orders.
- Reducing unnecessary recalls: Changes in legislation and probation policy could lower recall numbers and ease pressure on prisons.
- Investing in probation: Increased funding, better staffing, and stronger local partnerships are essential to making probation a viable alternative to custody.
Without urgent action, the justice system will continue down its current path—one of overcrowded prisons, overwhelmed probation services, and worsening outcomes for both clients and society. Napo will keep pushing for real change to ensure probation is properly funded, respected, and capable of breaking the cycle of reoffending.
