For years, Napo has warned that probation in England and Wales was being run into the ground. Chronic understaffing. Impossible workloads. Constant and devastating change imposed by ministers and senior leaders who wave the warnings away.
Now the government’s own spending watchdog has said it out loud adding further weight to Napo’s policy that HMPPS is no longer the safe guardian of the probation service.
Parliament delivers a damning verdict
In a blistering new report, the Public Accounts Committee concludes that “the probation service in England and Wales is failing” and is “teetering on the brink” of collapse. The consequences, it warns, is severe risk to public safety.
The PAC paints a bleak picture. Since probation was brought back under public control in 2021, performance has deteriorated sharply. In 2024–25, the service met just seven of its 27 performance targets, down from half only three years earlier. Most alarming of all, practitioners only adequately assessed the risk of harm in 28% of cases, compared with 60% in 2018–19.
A workforce under relentless pressure
As the Committee bluntly puts it: “The endpoint of this failure is demonstrated by our report, which shows the number of prisoners recalled to prison is at an all-time high.” At the end of March 2025, recalls accounted for 15% of the entire prison population, a staggering 49% rise since 2021.
And behind those figures are staff being pushed beyond breaking point.
The PAC heard evidence that probation officers are working at 118% capacity on average, with some regions reaching 126%. Vacancy rates have risen to 21%. Staff turnover and sickness are climbing, with mental ill health the leading cause of absence. The Committee describes a service whose culture is built on “emotional strain” and “trauma”, leaving staff feeling “alienated” by relentless, poorly managed change.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, Chair of the PAC, did not mince his words: “It was deeply alarming to hear of probation staff working under immense pressure in a seemingly toxic environment… The public’s safety relies on them doing so.”
Risky reforms, unanswered questions
Yet instead of stabilising the workforce, the Ministry of Justice and HMPPS are pressing ahead with a risky programme of reforms. The PAC is openly sceptical that Our Future Probation Service can deliver what is promised, warning that the MoJ “does not have a strong history of implementing digital change programmes well” and that reducing supervision for so-called “low-risk” people could store up serious danger.
The Committee’s verdict is devastating: HMPPS does not really know how many staff it needs, does not understand the link between probation performance and reoffending, and has not set clear thresholds for the risks it is willing to accept.
This report should end any pretence that the crisis in probation is exaggerated or temporary. Napo has been raising the alarm for years. Now Parliament is doing the same.
The question is no longer whether probation is in trouble. It is whether government will finally listen to the people who know the service best before “teetering on the brink” becomes total collapse.
Listen to Napo General Secretary, Ian Lawrence, on Times Radio speaking about the PAC’s report
One Response
Only adequately assessed the risk of harm in 28% of cases, it seems very low but when you have to do several sentences plans at the same time as well as everything else whilst working over capacity it is hardly surprising. Also if it is that low it begs the question as to why they then have removed counter signing!
I am pleased to hear that the constant changes are being picked up on. Again it adds more strain when you have to learn new policies and ways of working as well as doing everything else which includes all the other learning you are expected to do.